Yu, D ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8449-7725, Peat, G ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9008-0184, Bedson, J, Edwards, JJ, Turkiewicz, A and Jordan, KP ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4748-5335 (2016) Weighted cumulative exposure (WCE) models helped identify an association between early knee pain consultations and future knee OA diagnosis. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 76. pp. 218-228.

[img]
Preview
Text
D Yu - Weighted cumulative exposure models helped identify an association between early knee pain consultations and future knee OA dignosis.pdf - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

Download (829kB) | Preview

Abstract

Objective
To establish the association between prior knee-pain consultations and early diagnosis of knee osteoarthritis (OA) by weighted cumulative exposure (WCE) models.

Study Design and Setting
Data were from an electronic health care record (EHR) database (Consultations in Primary Care Archive). WCE functions for modeling the cumulative effect of time-varying knee-pain consultations weighted by recency were derived as a predictive tool in a population-based case-control sample and validated in a prospective cohort sample. Two WCE functions ([i] weighting of the importance of past consultations determined a priori; [ii] flexible spline-based estimation) were comprehensively compared with two simpler models ([iii] time since most recent consultation; total number of past consultations) on model goodness of fit, discrimination, and calibration both in derivation and validation phases.

Results
People with the most recent and most frequent knee-pain consultations were more likely to have high WCE scores that were associated with increased risk of knee OA diagnosis both in derivation and validation phases. Better model goodness of fit, discrimination, and calibration were observed for flexible spline-based WCE models.

Conclusion
WCE functions can be used to model prediagnostic symptoms within routine EHR data and provide novel low-cost predictive tools contributing to early diagnosis.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: weighted cumulative exposure; flexible modelling; risk prediction; knee osteoarthritis; knee pain
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Primary Care Health Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic
Date Deposited: 08 Mar 2016 12:41
Last Modified: 15 Apr 2019 11:24
URI: http://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/1537

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item