Debray, TPA and Damen, JAAG and Snell, KIE and Ensor, J and Hooft, L and Reitsma, JB and Riley, RD and Moons, KGM (2017) A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance. British Medical Journal. ISSN 0959-8138

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Abstract

Validation of prediction models is highly recommended and increasingly common in the literature. A
systematic review of validation studies is therefore helpful, with meta-analysis needed to summarise the
predictive performance of the model being validated across different settings and populations. The aims
of this article are (1) to provide guidance for systematically reviewing and meta-analysing the existing
evidence on a specific prediction model, (2) to discuss ‘good practice’ when quantitatively summarizing the
predictive performance of the model across studies and (3) to provide recommendations for interpreting
meta-analysis estimates of model performance. We present key steps of the meta-analysis and illustrate
each step in an exemplar review where we summarize the discrimination and calibration performance of
the EuroSCORE for predicting operative mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This work is made available online in accordance with publisher policies.
Uncontrolled Keywords: meta-analysis, systematic review, prediction model, external validation, prognostic model
Subjects: R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Primary Care Health Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic
Date Deposited: 12 Dec 2016 14:57
Last Modified: 30 Jun 2017 08:23
URI: http://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/2635

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