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Improving predictor selection for injury modelling methods in male footballers

Philp, Fraser; Al-shallawi, Ahmad; Kyriacou, Theocharis; Blana, Dimitra; Pandyan, Anand

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Authors

Fraser Philp

Ahmad Al-shallawi

Dimitra Blana

Anand Pandyan



Abstract

Objectives
This objective of this study was to evaluate whether combining existing methods of elastic net for zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson regression methods could improve real-life applicability of injury prediction models in football.

Methods
Predictor selection and model development was conducted on a pre-existing dataset of 24 male participants from a single English football team's 2015/2016 season.

Results
The elastic net for zero-inflated Poisson penalty method was successful in shrinking the total number of predictors in the presence of high levels of multicollinearity. It was additionally identified that easily measurable data, that is, mass and body fat content, training type, duration and surface, fitness levels, normalised period of 'no-play' and time in competition could contribute to the probability of acquiring a time-loss injury. Furthermore, prolonged series of match-play and increased in-season injury reduced the probability of not sustaining an injury.

Conclusion
For predictor selection, the elastic net for zero-inflated Poisson penalised method in combination with the use of ZIP regression modelling for predicting time-loss injuries have been identified appropriate methods for improving real-life applicability of injury prediction models. These methods are more appropriate for datasets subject to multicollinearity, smaller sample sizes and zero-inflation known to affect the performance of traditional statistical methods. Further validation work is now required.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Dec 15, 2019
Publication Date Jan 14, 2020
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal BMJ Open Sport and Exercise Medicine
Print ISSN 2055-7647
Publisher BMJ Publishing Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 6
Issue 1
Pages e000634 - e000634
DOI https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2019-000634
Keywords football, footballers, injury, predictor
Publisher URL https://bmjopensem.bmj.com/content/6/1/e000634

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