Lynch, M, Bucknall, M, Jagger, C and Wilkie, R (2022) Projections of healthy working life expectancy in England to the year 2035. Nature Aging, 2 (1). 13 - 18. ISSN Nature Research

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Abstract

UK state pension age is rising in response to life expectancy gains but population health and job opportunities may not be sufficient to achieve extended working lives1,2,3. This study aimed to estimate future trends in healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) from age 50 to 75 for men and women in England. Using the ‘intercensal’ health expectancy approach, annual period HWLE from 1996 to 2014 was estimated using cross-sectional Health Survey for England data and mortality statistics4,5,6,7. HWLE projections until the year 2035 were estimated from Lee–Carter forecasts of transition rates8. Projections of life expectancy from age 50 showed gains averaging 10.7 weeks (0.21 years) and 6.4 weeks (0.12 years) per calendar year between 2015 and 2035 for men and women respectively. HWLE has been extending in England but gains are projected to slow to an average of 1 week per year for men (0.02 years) and 2.8 weeks (0.05 years) per year for women between 2015 and 2035. Modest projected HWLE gains and the widening gap between HWLE and life expectancy from age 50 suggest that working lives are not extending in line with policy goals. Further research should identify factors that increase healthy working life.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: The final version of this article and all relevant information related to it, including copyrights, can be found on the publisher website.
Subjects: R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
R Medicine > R Medicine (General) > R735 Medical education. Medical schools. Research
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > School of Medicine
Depositing User: Symplectic
Date Deposited: 14 Apr 2022 14:00
Last Modified: 14 Apr 2022 14:00
URI: https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/eprint/10844

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