Anthony, SJ, Islam, A, Johnson, C, Navarrete-Macias, I, Liang, E, Jain, K, Hitchens, PL, Che, X, Soloyvov, A, Hicks, AL, Ojeda-Flores, R, Zambrana-Torrelio, C, Ulrich, W, Rostal, MK, Petrosov, A, Garcia, J, Haider, N, Wolfe, N, Goldstein, T, Morse, SS, Rahman, M, Epstein, JH, Mazet, JK, Daszak, P and Lipkin, WI (2015) Non-random patterns in viral diversity. Nature Communications, 6 (1).

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It is currently unclear whether changes in viral communities will ever be predictable. Here we investigate whether viral communities in wildlife are inherently structured (inferring predictability) by looking at whether communities are assembled through deterministic (often predictable) or stochastic (not predictable) processes. We sample macaque faeces across nine sites in Bangladesh and use consensus PCR and sequencing to discover 184 viruses from 14 viral families. We then use network modelling and statistical null-hypothesis testing to show the presence of non-random deterministic patterns at different scales, between sites and within individuals. We show that the effects of determinism are not absolute however, as stochastic patterns are also observed. In showing that determinism is an important process in viral community assembly we conclude that it should be possible to forecast changes to some portion of a viral community, however there will always be some portion for which prediction will be unlikely.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
Q Science > QH Natural history
Divisions: Faculty of Natural Sciences > School of Life Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic
Date Deposited: 31 Oct 2022 12:07
Last Modified: 31 Oct 2022 12:07

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