Cheng, J (2023) Modelling and forecasting risk dependence and portfolio VaR for cryptocurrencies. Empirical Economics. 1 - 26. ISSN 0377-7332

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In this paper, we investigate the co-dependence and portfolio value-at-risk of cryptocurrencies, with the Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple price series from January 2016 to December 2021, covering the crypto crash and pandemic period, using the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model. We find evidence of strong dependence among the virtual currencies with a dynamic structure. The empirical analysis shows that the GAS model smoothly handles volatility and correlation changes, especially during more volatile periods in the markets. We perform a comprehensive comparison of out-of-sample probabilistic forecasts for a range of financial assets and backtests and the GAS model outperforms the classic DCC (dynamic conditional correlation) GARCH model and provides new insights into multivariate risk measures.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
Uncontrolled Keywords: Cryptocurrencies; Generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model; Multivariate probabilistic forecasts; Portfolio management
Subjects: T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Natural Sciences > School of Computing and Mathematics
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Symplectic
Date Deposited: 15 Feb 2023 12:20
Last Modified: 16 Mar 2023 09:30

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