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A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance

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Abstract

Validation of prediction models is highly recommended and increasingly common in the literature. A
systematic review of validation studies is therefore helpful, with meta-analysis needed to summarise the
predictive performance of the model being validated across different settings and populations. The aims
of this article are (1) to provide guidance for systematically reviewing and meta-analysing the existing
evidence on a specific prediction model, (2) to discuss ‘good practice’ when quantitatively summarizing the
predictive performance of the model across studies and (3) to provide recommendations for interpreting
meta-analysis estimates of model performance. We present key steps of the meta-analysis and illustrate
each step in an exemplar review where we summarize the discrimination and calibration performance of
the EuroSCORE for predicting operative mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

Acceptance Date Nov 25, 2016
Publication Date Jan 5, 2017
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal British Medical Journal
Print ISSN 0959-8138
Publisher BMJ Publishing Group
DOI https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i6460
Keywords meta-analysis, systematic review, prediction model, external validation, prognostic model
Publisher URL http://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6460

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