Dr. Dahai Yu d.yu@keele.ac.uk
Derivation and external validation of risk algorithms for cerebrovascular (re)hospitalisation in patients with type 2 diabetes: two cohorts study.
Yu
Authors
Abstract
Aims
Cerebrovascular disease is one of more typical reasons for hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation in people with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to derive and externally validate two risk prediction algorithms for cerebrovascular hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation.
Methods
Two independent cohorts were used to derive and externally validate the two risk scores. The development cohort comprises 4704 patients with type 2 diabetes registered in 18 general practices across Cambridgeshire. The validation cohort includes 1121 type 2 patients from a post-trial cohort data. Outcomes were cerebrovascular hospitalisation within two years and cerebrovascular re-hospitalisation within ninety days of the previous cerebrovascular hospitalisation. Logistic regression was applied to derive the two risk scores for cerebrovascular hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation from development cohort, which were externally validated in the validation cohort.
Results
The incidence of cerebrovascular hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation was 3.76% and 1.46% in the development cohort, and 4.99% and 1.87% in the external validation cohort. Age, gender, body mass index, blood pressures, and lipid profiles were included in the final model. Model discrimination was similar in both cohorts, with all C-statistics?>?0.70, and very good calibration of observed and predicted individual risks.
Conclusion
Two new risk scores that quantify individual risks of cerebrovascular hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation have been well derived and externally validated. Both scores are on the basis of a few of clinical measurements that are commonly available for patients with type 2 diabetes in primary care settings and could work as tools to identify individuals at high risk of cerebrovascular hospitalisation and re-hospitalisation.
Acceptance Date | Aug 9, 2018 |
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Publication Date | Oct 1, 2018 |
Publicly Available Date | Mar 29, 2024 |
Journal | Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice |
Print ISSN | 0168-8227 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Pages | 74-81 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2018.08.006 |
Keywords | cerebrovascular disease, diabetes population, risk prediction, primary care |
Publisher URL | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2018.08.006 |
Files
20181101_YU DRCP Final accepted version.pdf
(449 Kb)
PDF
Publisher Licence URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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