Martin, G, Curzen, N, Goodwin, A, Nolan, J, Balacumaraswami, L, Ludman, P, Kontopantelis, E, Wu, J, Gale, C, de Belder, M and Mamas, M (2020) Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Activity and Outcomes of Transcatheter and Surgical Treatment of Severe Aortic Stenosis in England. Medrxiv.

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Background Aortic stenosis requires timely treatment with either surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This study aimed to investigate the indirect impact of COVID-19 on national SAVR and TAVR activity and outcomes. Methods The UK TAVR Registry and the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit were used to identify all TAVR and SAVR procedures in England, between January 2017 and June 2020. The number of isolated AVR, AVR+coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, AVR+other surgery and TAVR procedures per month was calculated. Separate negative binomial regression models were fit to monthly procedural counts, with functions of time as covariates, to estimate the expected change in activity during COVID-19. Results We included 13376 TAVR cases, 12328 isolated AVR cases, 7829 AVR+CABG cases, and 6014 AVR+Other cases. Prior to March 2020 (UK lockdown), monthly TAVR activity was rising, with a slight decrease in SAVR activity during 2019. We observed a rapid and significant drop in TAVR and SAVR activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially for elective cases. Cumulatively, over the period March to June 2020, we estimated an expected 2294 (95% CI 1872, 2716) cases of severe aortic stenosis who have not received treatment. Conclusion This study has demonstrated a significant decrease in TAVR and SAVR activity in England following the COVID-19 outbreak. This situation should be monitored closely, to ensure that monthly activity rapidly returns to expected levels. There is potential for significant backlog in the near-to-medium term, and potential for increased mortality in this population.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This Accepted manuscript is currently available via MedRxiv. Please refer to the following site for any information regarding copyrights, and any more information.
Uncontrolled Keywords: aortic valve replacement; aortic stenosis; COVID-19; outcomes; survival
Subjects: R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
R Medicine > R Medicine (General) > R735 Medical education. Medical schools. Research
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine > RC666 Diseases of the circulatory (Cardiovascular) system
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > School of Primary, Community and Social Care
Depositing User: Symplectic
Date Deposited: 26 Oct 2020 13:59
Last Modified: 17 Mar 2021 15:53

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